How to Read “来年の事を言えば鬼が笑う”
Rainen no koto wo ieba oni ga warau
Meaning of “来年の事を言えば鬼が笑う”
This proverb means “it is reckless and ridiculous to predict or plan for the distant future.”
Since humans do not have the ability to completely predict the future, it conveys the teaching that it is unrealistic to speak definitively about things too far ahead or make detailed plans. By specifically mentioning “next year” as a concrete time period, it expresses life’s uncertainty – that even one year ahead, nothing can be said with certainty.
This proverb is used when someone is speaking in excessive detail about future plans or making definitive statements about uncertain matters. Rather than harshly criticizing the other person, it’s often used as a gentle admonishment meaning “you can’t know that far ahead.” It remains a beloved expression in modern times for conveying the difficulty of long-term predictions.
Origin and Etymology
The origin of this proverb is rooted in the value of “humility toward the future” that Japanese people have long held. From the Heian period through the Muromachi period, people lived in an unstable world where natural disasters and warfare occurred frequently. Against this historical backdrop, the realistic recognition emerged that “when we can’t even know what tomorrow brings, there’s no way we can predict next year’s events.”
The expression “demons will laugh” conveys that even supernatural beings like demons would laugh at how ridiculous human reckless predictions are. Demons have long been feared as beings beyond human understanding, but they were also depicted as wise entities who could see through human foolishness.
Similar expressions can be found in Edo period literature, and it’s believed to have become widely used among common people. Particularly in an agriculture-centered society, facing harvests affected by weather, there was a real sense that planning too far ahead was impractical. This proverb is a condensation of such ancestral wisdom from daily life.
Usage Examples
- We’re talking about changing jobs, but since if you speak of next year’s matters, demons will laugh, let’s focus on working hard at our current job first
- I’m making detailed travel plans for next year, but since if you speak of next year’s matters, demons will laugh, I should keep it moderate
Modern Interpretation
In modern society, the meaning of this proverb has undergone significant changes. With the development of the information society, prediction technologies using data analysis and statistics have dramatically improved. Long-term predictions that were once at the level where “demons would laugh” – such as weather forecasts, economic predictions, and demographic trends – have become possible with a certain degree of accuracy.
Particularly in the business world, long-term strategies like 5-year and 10-year plans have become commonplace, and companies that don’t establish future-oriented plans are considered outdated. Even at the individual level, life planning and asset management that look decades ahead are recommended.
On the other hand, the global spread of COVID-19 reminded modern people once again of the “limits of prediction.” No matter how advanced science and technology become, we witnessed the reality that all plans can be disrupted by sudden events.
Under these circumstances, this proverb has gained new interpretation. Rather than completely abandoning planning, it continues to be passed down as modern wisdom meaning “make plans, but respond flexibly to changes.” It continues to hold value as words that teach the importance of balance – accepting uncertainty while not neglecting preparation.
When AI Hears This
Modern weather forecasts can predict conditions up to 7 days ahead with about 70% accuracy. Stock prediction AI reads future trends from massive datasets. Yet why does “speak of next year and the demons will laugh” still hit the mark today?
The answer lies in “chaos theory.” This is the theory that “small differences in initial conditions can later produce large differences in outcomes.” It’s famously known through the “butterfly effect” – the idea that a butterfly’s wing flap in Brazil could potentially cause a tornado in Texas.
In reality, weather forecast accuracy is limited to about 2 weeks. No matter how advanced supercomputers become, this barrier cannot be broken. This is because it’s physically impossible to perfectly measure the movement of every single molecule in the atmosphere.
Even more fascinating is the “black swan phenomenon.” This refers to unpredictable events that dramatically alter the course of history. The 2020 COVID pandemic, the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse. Neither could be predicted even by the world’s top economists.
In other words, no matter how much prediction technology advances, the world is fundamentally filled with “unpredictable elements.” Perhaps the demons laugh because humans tend to become overconfident in technology and forget this fundamental uncertainty.
Lessons for Today
What this proverb teaches us today is the importance of “balancing planning with flexibility.” While preparation for the future is necessary, we must not forget the humility to accept the limits of prediction.
In modern society, it has become increasingly common to speak of future dreams on social media or announce detailed life plans. However, if we draw too concrete and definitive a picture of the future, we risk becoming unable to adapt to changes. This proverb gently teaches us “it’s okay to relax a little” in such times.
What’s important is to have dreams and goals while keeping the possibility that “things might change” in a corner of our hearts. That way, when unexpected events occur, we can accept them as new opportunities.
Starting today, when you speak about the future, don’t forget to maintain a slightly humble attitude. It will surely create space in your heart and make life more enjoyable.
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