How to Read “Don’t put away your umbrella when it clears at four”
Yotsu bare ni kasa hanasu na
Meaning of “Don’t put away your umbrella when it clears at four”
“Don’t put away your umbrella when it clears at four” is a weather-related teaching. Even if the rain stops around 10 a.m. and you see clear skies, you shouldn’t let go of your umbrella.
When it clears at this time, it often rains again later. The proverb warns you to stay cautious and keep your umbrella with you.
This saying applies when morning rain stops and blue sky appears. You might feel tempted to leave your umbrella behind, thinking everything is fine now.
That’s when people say “Don’t put away your umbrella when it clears at four” as a warning. It reminds you not to let your guard down yet.
Even today, with modern weather forecasts, sudden weather changes still happen. This is especially true during the rainy season and autumn rains.
The proverb’s wisdom remains relevant. It teaches the importance of acting carefully and not being fooled by temporary clear skies. This is practical knowledge passed down through generations.
Origin and Etymology
No clear written records explain the origin of this proverb. However, it’s believed to be a weather saying passed down through Japanese farming communities for many generations.
“Four” refers to a time system used during the Edo period. It corresponds to around 10 a.m. in modern time.
People back then divided the day into twelve segments based on the Chinese zodiac, starting from sunrise. “Four” fell during the hour of the dragon, when the sun was climbing high.
When rain stops and clear skies appear at this hour, people naturally want to leave their umbrellas behind. But through years of observation, ancestors noticed a pattern.
Even when it cleared around this morning hour, rain often returned in the afternoon. This was their accumulated wisdom from experience.
Japan has long rainy seasons, including the summer rainy season and autumn rains. During these periods, temporary clear skies can be deceiving.
The teaching to stay cautious and keep your umbrella likely emerged naturally from farm work and daily life. In an era when reading the weather directly affected survival, such observational wisdom was treasured and carefully passed down.
Usage Examples
- The morning rain stopped, but they say “Don’t put away your umbrella when it clears at four,” so I’ll bring it just in case
- “Don’t put away your umbrella when it clears at four” proved true—it started raining again after noon
Universal Wisdom
“Don’t put away your umbrella when it clears at four” reflects a fundamental human psychology. When situations improve, people quickly drop their guard.
When rain stops and blue sky appears, everyone wants to believe things are fine now. The desire to be free from carrying a heavy umbrella clouds our judgment.
But nature doesn’t adjust to human convenience. A temporary break in the clouds might just be a brief pause, nothing more.
This proverb has endured because it warns against “optimistic assumptions”—a universal human weakness. When we see good signs, we quickly conclude the problem is over.
We stay careful during difficulties, but the moment things improve slightly, we become careless.
Our ancestors understood this human weakness through observing nature. They teach us that true peace of mind comes from seeing the whole picture, not just surface changes.
Being cautious isn’t cowardice. It’s wisdom.
When AI Hears This
The human brain performs Bayesian inference the moment it receives the observation data of “clearing at four.” It updates the “probability of rain” with this new information.
For example, if the original rain probability was 70 percent, seeing clear skies might lower it to 40 percent. What’s interesting is that this proverb emphasizes the remaining prior probability—that 40 percent still exists.
Unless the probability drops to zero, it says keep your umbrella.
More importantly, this proverb implicitly incorporates “cost asymmetry of misjudgment.” If you carry an umbrella and don’t use it, the loss is minimal—just the burden of extra weight.
But if you leave your umbrella and get caught in rain, the losses are far greater. You get wet, might catch a cold, and your plans get disrupted.
Information theory shows that when costs are asymmetric like this, taking precautionary action is rational even when probability is low.
This proverb teaches us to consider two elements simultaneously in decision-making under incomplete information. First, update probabilities based on observed data. Second, account for asymmetric error costs.
Feeling safe based solely on the limited observation of clearing at four is statistically a dangerous premature judgment.
Lessons for Today
This proverb teaches us an important attitude: “Don’t mistake temporary improvement for complete resolution.”
In work and relationships, when difficult situations improve slightly, we tend to relax and think everything is fine. But if we let our guard down before truly solving the problem, we’ll face the same issue again and panic.
The same applies to health management. If you stop taking medicine or push yourself too hard because you feel a bit better, symptoms can return.
In project management, if you neglect preparation because progress looks smooth, you won’t be able to handle unexpected troubles.
What matters is the ability to assess situations carefully. Don’t get swayed by surface changes. Judge the overall flow calmly.
Until you can be completely confident, don’t neglect your preparations. This cautiousness isn’t cowardice at all.
Rather, it’s a wise attitude for achieving true peace of mind and success. Try applying this wisdom to your own life.
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